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Critical Care

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Critical Care's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Serum Proteomics Profiling in Newborns: Differences Compared to Adults serum and new molecular markers for neonatal Sepsis

Roger, K.; Fatou Coly, N.; Metatla, I.; Diallo, F. A.; Basse, I.; Gueye, P. M.; Chhuon, C.; Guerrera, I. C.

2026-05-29 pathology 10.64898/2026.05.27.728097 medRxiv
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BackgroundNeonatal sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as Senegal, where incidence is 78-104 per 1,000 live births and mortality exceeds 20 per 1,000, with case fatality rates around 36%. Diagnosis is difficult due to non-specific clinical signs and lack of molecular biomarkers, highlighting the need for improved early diagnostic molecular markers that could be applied even outside of hospital settings. ObjectivesCompare neonatal and adult serum proteomes to establish a reference and identify serum protein biomarkers of neonatal sepsis. MethodsSerum samples from Senegalese neonates and adults were analyzed using data-independent acquisition (DIA) proteomics on neat serum (Evosep-timsTOF HT platform). The cohort comprised 6 neonates with non-confirmed sepsis (NCS), 22 with confirmed sepsis (CS), 17 healthy newborn controls (HC), 6 unclassified and 20 healthy adults. Downstream analyses included differential protein abundance testing, unsupervised clustering, weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), and correlation analyses with clinical parameters. ResultsWe identified 979{+/-}20 proteins in newborns versus 718{+/-}40 in adults. Newborns showed reduced immune-response proteins, a narrower dynamic range, and increased structural proteins such as collagens, consistent with immune immaturity and tissue development. Unsupervised WGCNA analysis led to a 53-protein cluster discriminated CS from NCS/HC. Some of these dysregulated proteins identified have already been reported in independent studies using different approaches in neonatal and/or adult sepsis. Our larger panel however of identified markers maps to three major biological processes involved in sepsis: (i) pathogen sensing (LBP, CD14), and acute-phase inflammation (e.g. CRP, SAA1/2, ORM1/2); (ii) innate immune activation and leukocyte recruitment (e.g., FCGR3A, CSF1R, CD163, CD206) and final platelet exhaustion and metabolic dysregulation, (e.g., PF4, PPBP, THBS1, GP5); (iii) endothelial injury and microvascular dysfunction with tissue remodeling (e.g., ICAM1, VCAM1, VWF, SPARC) and loss of protective lipoproteins and serpins (e.g., APOA1, APOA2, APOM, SERPINA4, SERPINA5) ConclusionThis study provides a very comprehensive neonatal serum proteome characterization and identifies, for the first time, a protein panel of proteins mapped to three major processes in sepsis.

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Pre-admission polypharmacy burden and intensive care unit outcomes in patients with sepsis: A retrospective cohort study using the MIMIC-IV-ED linked database

Haque, F.; Hasan, M.

2026-05-15 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.12.26352808 medRxiv
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Purpose: Polypharmacy is highly prevalent among critically ill patients, yet it's independent impact on intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes in sepsis remains critically unexplored. We aimed to evaluate whether pre-admission polypharmacy independently predicts ICU mortality and provides incremental prognostic value using the medication reconciliation module of the MIMIC-IV-ED linked database. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 3,347 adults admitted to the ICU who met Sepsis-3 criteria. Pre-admission polypharmacy was categorized as none (0-4), standard (5-9), or high (>=10 medications). Multivariable logistic regression, propensity score matching, and reclassification analyses (NRI/IDI) were performed. The primary outcome was in-hospital ICU mortality. Results: High polypharmacy was present in 58.9% of patients. Crude ICU mortality increased sequentially: 18.5% (none), 26.0% (standard), and 27.5% (high; p < 0.001). After multivariable adjustment, high polypharmacy independently predicted in-hospital ICU mortality (aOR 1.45, 95% CI (1.10-1.91)), and 28-day mortality (aOR 1.47). Drug-class analysis identified statins as significantly protective (aOR 0.56), whereas RAS blockers combined with diuretics increased acute kidney injury risk (aOR 1.49). Propensity matching confirmed the primary mortality association (matched aOR 1.28). Conclusions: By utilizing the ED medication reconciliation table, this study proves high polypharmacy represents a distinct 'pharmacologic frailty', independent of acute severity. Available instantly at triage, this zero-latency metric provides significant early prognostic value (SOFA NRI = 0.24) and identifies actionable high-risk interactions (e.g., RAS blockers plus diuretics) for immediate, targeted pharmacist-led intervention upon ICU admission.

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Sequential application of time-stratified demographic, vital, clinical-laboratory and microbiology variables for accurate and rapid identification of sepsis

Navalkar, K. A.; Garnacho-Montero, J.; Canton-Bulnes, M. L.; Garcia-Garmendia, J. L.; Estella, A.; Fernandez-Galilea, A.; Blanco, I.; Estecha-Foncea, M. A.; Gordillo-Resina, M.; Rodriguez-Gomez, J.; Pineda-Capitan, J. J.; Martinez-Fernandez, C.; Escoresca-Ortega, A.; Amaya-Villar, R.; Mora-Ordonez, J.; Gonzalez-Soto, S.; Gutierrez-Pizarraya, A.; Balk, R.; Miller, R. R.; Burke, J. P.; Patel, G.; Parada, J. P.; Schultz, M. J.; Scicluna, B. P.; Blodget, E.; Kumar, S.; Sampson, D.; Yager, T. D.; Davis, R. F.; Cermelli, S.; Brandon, R. B.

2026-05-29 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.27.26354135 medRxiv
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Background: Accurate early identification of sepsis remains a major clinical challenge due to its heterogeneous presentation and overlap of clinical signs with the non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Timely differentiation is crucial for improving patient outcomes, meeting sepsis bundle requirements and reducing inappropriate antimicrobial use. We hypothesized that clinical and laboratory data available within the first 3 hours of patient presentation could be used to identify patients with sepsis to an actionable level of accuracy, in lieu of traditional microbiology results which would not become available until at least 12-24 hours. Data from two independent studies were used to quantify the diagnostic value of demographic, vital, clinical-laboratory, and microbiological data available at three time points for distinguishing retrospectively diagnosed critically ill patients with either sepsis or non-infectious SIRS. A particular focus of this work was an assessment of the utility of SeptiCyte RAPID (Immunexpress Inc., Seattle, Washington, USA) as an aid to sepsis diagnosis, producing actionable data within 1 hour. Methods: Data from two independent study cohorts were analysed. The 510k cohort consisted of 419 adult patients in intensive care (ICU) (MARS, VENUS, and NEPTUNE trials). The Andalusian cohort consisted of 353 ICU patients from the PANGEA study. Logistic regression models, selected by a greedy search algorithm and validated by repeated cross-validation, were used to determine the contributions of different variables to diagnostic accuracy. Diagnostic performance was quantified by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: For the 510k cohort, a baseline AUC of 0.69-0.73 was observed using 5-7 vital and demographic variables assessed immediately upon presentation (time T1). The addition of clinical-laboratory variables, in particular SeptiCyte RAPID, within 1-3 hours post-presentation (time T2) increased the AUC to 0.83-0.85). Finally, the addition of microbiological data 12-24 hours post-presentation (time T3) further improved the AUC to 0.90-0.91. Similar results were obtained for the Andalusian cohort. AUC values at the three time points were as follows: At time T1, AUC = 0.67 based solely on vital signs and demographics; at time T2, AUC = 0.87 based on vitals + demographics + SeptiCyte RAPID or other clinical laboratory data; at time T3, AUC = 0.93 based on vitals + demographics + SeptiCyte RAPID or other clinical laboratory data + microbiology results). For both cohorts, the most significant variables included temperature, mean arterial pressure, respiratory rate, suspected infection site; SeptiCyte RAPID, procalcitonin, confirmed bacterial infection and positive blood culture confirmation. Conclusions: Accuracy of identification of sepsis increases markedly as demographics and vital signs are supplemented with clinical-laboratory information, and ultimately with microbiological culture results. The fastest improvement occurs within the first 3 hours when laboratory data, and in particular SeptiCyte RAPID results, become available. Integrating rapid host-response testing with SeptiCyte RAPID into time-based diagnostic frameworks may enhance early sepsis recognition, improve antimicrobial stewardship, and support guideline-driven clinical decisions.

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Genome-Wide DNA Methylation Profiling in Critically Ill Patients with Sepsis: A Pooled Epigenome-Wide Association Study Using the Infinium Methylation EPIC v2.0 Array

Bonavia, A. S.; Janicki, P.

2026-06-01 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354469 medRxiv
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Objective: To characterize genome-wide DNA methylation patterns associated with sepsis using the Infinium Methylation EPIC v2.0 platform and to evaluate the feasibility of pooled methylation profiling in a pilot critical care cohort. Design: Single-center pilot epigenome-wide association study using pooled whole-blood genomic DNA and pool-level bioinformatic analysis. Setting: Academic medical center. Patients: Fifty critically ill adults enrolled within 48 hours of illness onset and 20 healthy controls. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: Critically ill patients required mechanical ventilation and/or vasopressor support. Sepsis was defined according to Sepsis-3 criteria. Seventy individual samples were organized into 14 intended pools of 5 individuals each: 7 sepsis pools, 3 critically ill non-septic pools, and 4 healthy-control pools. One critically ill non-septic pool was excluded because of poor DNA quality, yielding 13 analyzable pools. For the primary pooled comparison, 7 sepsis pools were compared with 6 non-sepsis comparator pools comprising 2 critically ill non-septic and 4 healthy-control pools. After quality control and preprocessing with SeSAMe, 876,094 CpG sites were retained. The initial pool-level screen identified 170,897 candidate differentially methylated regions. Application of stringent secondary filters (false discovery rate <= 1%, absolute delta-beta >= 7.5%, and >= 5 CpGs per region) yielded a high-confidence subset with marked directional skewing, including 155 hypomethylated and 32 hypermethylated regions in sepsis. Differentially methylated region-associated genes were enriched in myeloid leukocyte activation, myeloid leukocyte-mediated immunity, defense response to bacterium, neutrophil granule biology, and hematopoietic cell lineage pathways. Additional signals involved microRNA-associated targets, ribosome biogenesis, RNA processing, long noncoding RNAs, and previously uncharacterized loci. Conclusions: In this pilot pooled EPIC v2.0 study, sepsis was associated with a biologically coherent, predominantly hypomethylated methylation signature enriched in myeloid and host-defense pathways. These findings support the feasibility of pooled methylation profiling for discovery-oriented sepsis biobank studies but should be interpreted as hypothesis-generating given the pool-level design, limited effective sample size, heterogeneous comparator group, and lack of direct validation against individual-level methylation profiles.

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An AI-assisted feasibility evaluation of three photoplethysmography-derived microvascular reactivity signals in MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.0

Landry, T. C.; Kim, Y.

2026-06-06 health informatics 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354863 medRxiv
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Background. Capillary refill time, an examiner-dependent bedside test of distal microvascular perfusion, has become a resuscitation target in septic shock,1,2,3,4 motivating a continuous surrogate computed from the photoplethysmogram (PPG, the optical waveform the pulse oximeter on every ICU patient already records).5,6,7,8 Objective. We attempted three PPG-derived candidate measures on the MIMIC-IV Waveform Database (MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.0) and asked, by inspecting randomly drawn examples, whether each captured its intended physiology before any downstream modeling. Methods. MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.09 was linked to MIMIC-IV.10 The signals were a cuff-anchored perfusion-index recovery (reactive hyperemia when the cuff shares an arm with the probe), a slow Mayer-wave-band power ratio of the perfusion index (sympathetic vasomotor tone), and a per-beat diastolic exponential decay time constant (a refill-like recovery time). For each signal we drew 10 random examples at a fixed seed and checked them against a checklist fixed in advance. Each was read by the author and, separately, by MedGemma 1.5, a multimodal medical language model run locally. A synthetic test with a known time constant checked the third signal. Results. The cuff-anchored signal showed the expected occlusion-reperfusion shape on 268 of 6,236 evaluable cuff cycles (4.30%) in 15 of 19 patients, consistent with opposite-limb placement of the probe and cuff. The slow-band ratio returned a stable cohort value, but a clear, stationary peak appeared in only4 of 10 random windows. The per-beat fit met its goodness-of-fit threshold in 10 of 10 beats, yet a cardiac-frequency heuristic flagged a possible fit on the heart-rate oscillation in 7 of 10, and in 5 of 17 patients the time constant lay where an exponential is indistinguishable from a straight line. A 0.5Hz high-pass pre-filter implanted its own approximately 318 ms time constant regardless of truth. The language model tracked the human on clear positives but reported the pattern present on every call it returned, never absent. Conclusions. Two of the three candidate signals did not reflect their intended physiology in most examples, and the third was constrained by sensor placement. Inspecting a few random raw inputs against a checklist written in advance is an inexpensive upstream check before downstream inference on PPG-derived microvascular signals.

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A Clinical Predictor of Lung Molecular Endotype Identifies Heterogeneity in Corticosteroid Response in Severe COVID-19: an Emulated Target Trial

Sines, B.; Hagan, R.; Jiang, X.; Pavlechko, E.; McClain, S.; Hunt, X.; Florou-Moreno, J.; Acquadro, J.; Risa, G.; Valsaraj, V.; Schisler, J.; Wolfgang, M. C.

2026-06-10 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.06.08.26355201 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Corticosteroids reduce mortality in severe COVID-19 requiring oxygen or invasive mechanical ventilation, yet emerging data suggest that SARS-CoV-2-associated acute lung injury is biologically heterogeneous and that treatment response may vary across molecularly defined disease states. Lung-derived molecular endotypes of severe COVID-19-associated acute lung injury have been described, but direct molecular profiling is not routinely available at the bedside. We evaluated whether a clinical predictor of previously defined lung molecular endotype identifies heterogeneity in corticosteroid treatment effect among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19. Methods: We utilized a single-center cohort of 5,000 patients with COVID-19 treated at the University of North Carolina Hospital between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2022, to emulate a target trial assessing the effect of corticosteroid receipt on mortality, length of stay, and incident organ support. Confounding was addressed through inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Outcomes for severely ill patients requiring mechanical ventilation were compared to the RECOVERY trial results, with subsequent moderation analysis and stratified analysis by clinically predicted lung molecular endotype and vaccination status. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary Outcomes were time to discharge alive and progression to additional organ support. Results: This emulated target trial showed a directionally favorable but non-statistically significant association between corticosteroid treatment and reduced 28-day mortality in patients requiring mechanical ventilation for SARS-CoV-2 infection. A clinical predictor of lung molecular endotype moderated the effect of corticosteroids on 28-day mortality (p-value for interaction 0.038) and identified distinct predicted endotype-specific treatment effect. Corticosteroid treatment was associated with lower 28-day mortality in the predicted Hyper-Inflammatory endotype (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.39, 0.99) but not in the predicted Metabolic Dysregulation endotype (OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.82, 1.61). We did not detect significant effect modification by vaccination status (p-value for interaction 0.65), although inference was limited by the small, vaccinated subgroup (28-mortality OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.37, 1.65 in vaccinated vs 0.94, 95% CI 0.70, 1.26 in unvaccinated). Conclusions: In this target trial emulation of mechanically ventilated patients with severe COVID-19, corticosteroid treatment showed a directionally favorable but non-statistically significant association with reduced 28-day mortality in the overall cohort. However, a clinical predictor of lung molecular endotype identified significant heterogeneity in treatment effect, with benefit concentrated in the predicted Hyper-Inflammatory endotype and no apparent benefit in the predicted Metabolic Dysregulation endotype. These findings support prospective validation of clinically deployable endotype-guided corticosteroid treatment strategies in acute lung injury and ARDS.

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Reprogramming of Iron and Oxygen Metabolism Across the Spectrum of Primary Aldosteronism

Parisien-La Salle, S.; Tsai, C. H.; Newman, A. J.; Heydarpour, M.; Mahrokhian, S.; Hanna, I.; Brown, J. M.; Waikar, S.; Moussa, M.; Vaidya, A.

2026-06-10 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355256 medRxiv
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Background: Pathologic aldosteronism induces oxidative stress, tissue injury, and increases in hemoglobin. Conversely, aldosterone antagonist therapy decreases hemoglobin. Whether these effects are attributable to aldosterone-mediated changes in iron and oxygen metabolism is unknown. Methods: The plasma proteome of participants with overt primary aldosteronism (PA) (n=50) was compared with participants without overt PA (n=61). To isolate aldosterone-dependent effects, participants without overt PA underwent oral sodium suppression testing to quantify the magnitude of renin-independent aldosterone production, enabling monotonic dose-response analyses across the continuum of renin-independent aldosteronism (subclinical to overt PA). Differential abundance testing was performed using empirical Bayes linear modeling, followed by Reactome pathway enrichment analysis and covariate-adjusted sensitivity analyses. To validate clinical relevance, aldosterone dose-response trends with blood count parameters were examined in this cohort, and an independent population-based cohort of 5,713 people with hypertension. Results: 903 proteins in the peripheral circulation were differentially abundant in overt PA versus participants without PA. The most significantly increased protein in overt PA was CYBRD1, involved in iron reduction and absorption. Pathway enrichment identified 16 iron- and heme-related pathways, including erythropoietin signaling, heme biosynthesis and mitochondrial iron-sulfur cluster biogenesis, with increases in heme and erythroid proteins and decreases in mitochondrial iron-sulfur proteins. Linear aldosterone dose-dependent trend analyses across the PA continuum further supported this signature, identifying progressive increases in hemoglobin subunits (HBA1/HBB), heme-related proteins (HMBS, UROS, AMBP, HPX, GLO1) and erythrocyte oxygen handling enzymes (CA1/CA3), alongside progressive reductions in mitochondrial electron transport chain subunits (CYCS, ETFA). These proteomic changes corresponded with aldosterone dose-dependent increases in red blood cell count, hemoglobin, and hematocrit, in this cohort and another population-based cohort. Conclusion: The continuum of PA is characterized by a progressive shift away from mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation and toward increased intestinal iron absorption, preferential iron transport over storage, and enhanced heme synthesis and recycling, possibly reflecting cellular pseudohypoxia and systemic adaptations to increase oxygen delivery. These findings provide a novel mechanistic basis for aldosterone-mediated tissue injury and the benefits of aldosterone-directed therapy.

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Peri Operative deLta rEnin ConcentrATion (POLECAT) Study Protocol and Analysis Plan

Boyer, N.; Haider, S.; Piercy, C.; Zarbock, A.; Samuels, T. L.; Papadopoulou, A.; Forni, L. G.; Creagh Brown, B.

2026-05-27 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26352884 medRxiv
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Background: Post-operative hypotension and vasoplegia are well recognised following cardiac surgery but remain poorly characterised after major non-cardiac surgery, despite associations with acute kidney injury (AKI), cardiovascular complications, and increased mortality. Dysregulation of the renin angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) may underpin haemodynamic instability in this setting, yet data in abdominal surgery are limited. Objectives: The POLECAT (Perioperative delta Renin) study aims to determine whether changes in circulating renin concentration (delta renin) from pre-operative baseline to the early post-operative period are associated with post-operative vasoplegia in patients undergoing major abdominal surgery requiring intensive care admission. Methods: POLECAT is a single-centre, prospective observational study conducted at a UK tertiary referral hospital. Adult patients undergoing planned or emergency abdominopelvic surgery with anticipated intensive care admission are enrolled. Blood samples are obtained pre-operatively, within four hours post-operatively, and on post-operative day one to measure renin and a panel of endothelial, renal, and immune biomarkers. The primary outcome is post-operative vasoplegia, defined as the requirement for a vasopressor infusion at 08:00 on post-operative day one. Secondary outcomes include alternative vasoplegia definitions, AKI (KDIGO criteria), vasopressor burden, organ dysfunction, cardiovascular complications, length of stay, and mortality. Multivariable regression, receiver operating characteristic analyses, and predefined subgroup analyses will be performed, with sensitivity analyses addressing missing data. Conclusions: This study will clarify the relationship between peri-operative RAAS dysfunction and vasoplegia following major abdominal surgery. Findings may support biomarker-guided risk stratification and inform future interventional trials targeting haemodynamic instability in this high-risk population.

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Liver biopsy confirms precise and efficient correction of SERPINA1 after in vivo Base Editing in a Patient with Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency

Krooss, S. A.; Yang, T.; Yuan, Q.; Drick, N.; Sgodda, M.; Held, J.; Behrendt, P.; Hartleben, B.; Koczulla, R.; Ma, X.; Liu, Y.; Wedemeyer, H.; Janciauskiene, S.; Di Donato, N.; Cantz, T.; Wang, E.; Wu, Y.; Hoeper, M.; Xia, Q.; Ott, M.

2026-06-09 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354551 medRxiv
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Background: Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) caused by the PI*ZZ mutation (Glu342Lys) results in hepatic accumulation of misfolded AAT-Z protein and reduced circulating AAT levels, leading to progressive liver disease and emphysema. Gene correction therapy represents a potentially curative approach by directly correcting the underlying genetic defect. We report the first case of successful hepatic gene correction with early histological and functional assessment. Methods/Case presentation: We report the case of a 66-year-old male patient with PI*ZZ AATD who underwent gene correction therapy within the YOLT-202 phase I/Ia clinical trial (clinical trial.gov ID NCT07193615). Ten weeks post treatment a liver biopsy was performed to re-evaluate pre-existing F2 liver fibrosis as measured by elastography before entering the study. Serum samples allowed functional assessment of the AAT-mediated elastase inhibition. Results: Liver biopsy did not show signs of hepatic inflammation and demonstrated 54% (Sanger) and 57% (Illumina) gene correction rate of the PI*ZZ variant on the DNA level with no bystander edits or off-target effects. Following a transient elevation of transaminases during the early post-treatment period, liver enzymes normalized. Monthly serum AAT measurements demonstrated biologically active and stable therapeutic levels throughout follow-up. Conclusions: This case demonstrates efficient and precise hepatic gene correction without concerning histological alterations and with substantial improvement of functional parameters, supporting the feasibility and safety of gene editing approaches for AATD.

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Impact of pharmacist board certification on health outcomes of critically ill patients: An analysis of the Optimizing Pharmacist-Team Integration for ICU patient Management (OPTIM) study

Smith, S. E.; Henry, K.; Heavner, M.; Keedy, C.; Duong, H.; Chen, Z.; Chen, X.; OPTIM Investigator Team, ; Sikora, A.

2026-06-02 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.26.26353672 medRxiv
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BACKGROUND: Critical care pharmacists (CCPs) reduce adverse drug events (ADEs) and mortality in the intensive care unit (ICU). Board certification is the established professional standard for CCPs but its impact on ICU patient outcomes, including its relationship between CCP characteristics and workload, remain unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between pharmacist board certification, CCP workload characteristics, and patient outcomes. METHODS: This was a pre-planned analysis of the multicenter, observational Optimizing Pharmacist Team Integration for ICU Patient Management (OPTIM) study, including adult ICU patients cared for by CCPs. Patients cared for exclusively by board certified pharmacists on every ICU day were categorized as the BCP group; those with at least one day of care from a non board certified pharmacist comprised the non BCP group. The primary outcome was hospital mortality; secondary outcomes included the hazard of discharge alive (HDA) from the ICU and hospital. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between BCP and mortality; Fine-Gray competing risk models were used to assess the relationship between BCP and ICU and hospital HDA. RESULTS: A total of 201 pharmacists (184 BCPs; 17 non BCPs) from 63 institutions caring for 20,537 ICU patients were included. Care provided exclusively by a BCP (vs. >/= 1 day by a non-BCP) was associated with lower mortality (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.92, p=0.002) and both a higher ICU HDA (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.13, p<0.001) and hospital HDA (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.26, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Daily ICU care delivered by pharmacists with board certification was independently associated with reduced mortality and improved hazard of discharge alive from the ICU. Board-certified pharmacists may enhance the quality and/or efficiency of critical care pharmacy services. These findings support the role of board certification as a modifiable factor to improve patient outcomes and optimize workload in the ICU.

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Risk of apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability in preterm infants is modulated by clinical, demographic and dynamic indicators

Chen, Y.; Ketheeswaranathan, V.; Fordington, S.; Baxter, L.; Stevens, F.; Zandvoort, C. S.; Gawthorpe, R.; Villarroel, M.; Berthouze, L.; Hartley, C.

2026-05-17 pediatrics 10.64898/2026.05.13.26353101 medRxiv
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Background: Apnoea of prematurity is common and may cause desaturation and/or bradycardia. There is marked variability in infants cardiorespiratory responses to apnoea, despite standardised clinical thresholds. Factors influencing apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability and whether instability can be predicted warrant investigation. Methods: 181,511 apnoeas >5 seconds were identified from continuous physiological recordings from 146 preterm infants <37 weeks postmenstrual age. Cardiorespiratory instability was defined as bradycardia (>30% heart rate reduction) and/or oxygen desaturation (<85%). Mixed-effects models assessed clinical, demographic and dynamic modulators of the relationship between apnoea duration and cardiorespiratory instability. Machine learning (XGBoost) was used to train models to predict apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability. Results: Longer duration apnoeas were associated with increased instability, although variability was substantial and 3.6% of apnoeas <10 seconds were associated with cardiorespiratory instability, while 61.2% of apnoeas [&ge;]20 seconds were not. Multiple clinical/demographic (postmenstrual and gestational age, sex, weight z-score, and ventilation mode) and dynamic (baseline heart rate, oxygen saturation, and recent apnoea clustering) factors were associated with increased instability risk. Apnoea-related cardiorespiratory instability could be predicted with a balanced test accuracy of 75.8% when incorporating all features, while a model using only clinical/demographic features achieved 66.0%. Conclusions: Multiple factors influence cardiorespiratory responses to apnoea. Predictive modelling may enable personalised apnoea definitions, improving individualised care.

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Sensor Geometry, Not Signal Processing, Limits Opportunistic Detection of Capillary-Refill-Like Signals by Rule-Based and Language-Model Methods in Archived ICU Waveforms

Landry, T. C.; Kim, Y.

2026-06-09 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26355129 medRxiv
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Background. Capillary refill time is a resuscitation target in septic shock,1-4 but bedside measurement is examiner-dependent. An ICU monitor co-records a photoplethysmogram on the pulse oximeter and intermittent noninvasive blood pressure cuff cycles; if the probe and the cuff share a limb, each cycle is an unplanned vascular occlusion test on the distal microvascular bed. Standard practice places the two on opposite limbs. Objective. To measure how often, in MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.0, charted cuff cycles show the photoplethysmographic morphology expected of a same-limb cuff and probe, and to characterize the candidate capillary refill-like signal when that morphology is present. Methods. MIMIC-IV-WDB v0.1.05 was linked to the MIMIC-IV clinical database.6 A pre-registered rule-based detector identified candidate occlusion-reperfusion signatures on the 1-Hz perfusion-index envelope around each charted cuff timestamp. The primary endpoint was the proportion of cuff cycles suitable for analysis that were detector-positive at a 15-second reperfusion threshold, with 95% confidence intervals estimated by resampling patients at a fixed seed. A secondary analysis used a locally hosted multimodal language model (a Gemma-3 derivative on a non-device server) to adjudicate the same signature on perfusion-index plots; no MIMIC-IV-WDB content left the workstation. Results. Of 9,224 charted cuff cycles, 8,909 had a usable pulse-oximeter waveform, and 268 cycles in 15 patients (4.30% of the 6,236 cuff cycles suitable for analysis, 95% CI 2.60 to 6.03) met the primary 15-second threshold. The language model adjudicated the same cycles and called 1,367 of the 8,909 cycles with a usable waveform (15.34%) signature-present, roughly five times the detectors count. Because no laterality ground truth exists, agreement with a single blinded reader served as the comparator rather than accuracy. The two methods were about equally concordant with the reader: precision was 0.25 (95% CI 0.14 to 0.39) for the detector and 0.24 (95% CI 0.10 to 0.35) for the language model, although reweighting to the full population of cycles with a usable waveform lowered the language model to 0.030 (95% CI 0.009 to 0.053). These estimates are reference-limited: a blinded re-read of a 150-card subsample showed only moderate intra-rater reliability (Cohen {kappa} 0.46 to 0.59) with systematic undercalling on the first pass, and rescoring against the corrected re-read roughly doubled precision for both methods. Conclusions. Opportunistic extraction of capillary refill-like signals from archived ICU pulse oximetry is limited in two distinct ways. First, sensor geometry limits how often the signal is recordable: cuff cycles rarely show the morphology expected of a same-limb cuff and probe pair, consistent with opposite-limb placement, so the bottleneck is geometry rather than signal processing. Second, the modest reliability of morphology adjudication limits how well any single flagged cycle can be confirmed: against a blinded reader the detector is a usable screen but a noisy confirmer, the reference is itself only moderately reliable, and the language model is no more concordant despite flagging many more cycles. The minority of cycles in which the morphology appears contain a candidate signal that may merit prospective study under controlled placement with laterality recorded.

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Ruling In and Ruling Out Sepsis Using Likelihood Ratios of a Host Response Assay

Navalkar, K. A.; Wani, P.; Davis, R. F.; Cermelli, S.; Dietrich, M.; von der Forst, M.; Becker, S. L.; Benthien, S.; Baumann, E.; Zeiner, C.; Lepper, P. M.; Garnacho-Montero, J.; Canton-Bulnes, M. L.; Fernandez-Galilea, A.; Luis Garcia-Garmendia, J. L.; Estella, A.; Miller, R. R.; Schultz, M. J.; Rothman, R.; Burke, J.; Patel, G.; Parada, J.; Yager, T. D.; Brandon, R. B.

2026-06-01 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354374 medRxiv
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Overview: SeptiCyte RAPID is an FDA-cleared gene expression test that quantifies host immune response to aid in the diagnosis of sepsis. The test yields a score (the SeptiScore) ranging from 0-15, distributed across four bands (1-4) based on increased likelihood of sepsis. Each band can be characterized by average positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR- respectively) for the discrimination of sepsis versus the non-infectious systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Methods: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a combined cohort of critically ill patients suspected of sepsis (N=889), recruited across 19 hospitals in the USA and Europe. The analysis quantified the LR+ and LR- parameters as a function of SeptiScore, for discrimination of sepsis vs. SIRS in patients admitted to ICU. Hypotheses: (1) The likelihood ratio (LR) framework provides a clinically useful interpretive approach that complements the previously used SeptiScore banding scheme; (2) Low Band 1 SeptiScores are associated with sufficiently small LR- to support the use of SeptiCyte RAPID as a rule-out test for sepsis; (3) High Band 4 SeptiScores are associated with sufficiently large LR+ to support the use of SeptiCyte RAPID as a rule-in test for sepsis; and (4) SeptiScore-derived LR+ and LR- values can be combined with estimates of pre-test probability (derived from patient characteristics and/or other diagnostic tests) to generate individualized, patient-specific post-test probabilities of sepsis. Results: The SeptiCyte RAPID test demonstrates strong diagnostic performance in distinguishing sepsis from SIRS. The likelihood ratios across different score bands provide clear clinical utility: the median LR+ was 3.26 (range 2.57-4.24) for Band 3, and 6.97 (range 4.35-15.57) for Band 4 providing evidence toward ruling in sepsis at high SeptiScores. Conversely, the median LR- was 0.16 (range 0.14-0.20) for Band 2 and 0.085 (range 0.014-0.16) for Band 1, providing evidence toward ruling out sepsis at low SeptiScores. A higher-resolution analysis of SeptiCyte RAPID performance confirmed these trends by evaluating LR+ and LR- at specific values within each band. The sepsis group was further stratified according to whether patients were classified as blood-culture positive (BC+) or blood culture negative (BC-), and the detailed LR+ and LR- analyses were repeated. A monotonic increase in likelihood ratio with increasing SeptiScore was consistently observed, independent of whether sepsis patients were culture-positive, culture-negative, or unstratified with respect to blood culture status. Conclusion: High SeptiScores have correspondingly high LR+ values, and low SeptiScores have correspondingly low LR- values, both of which may have clinical utility. High likelihood ratios for band 4 SeptiScores, which precede traditional microbiology results, may provide clinicians with early confidence of a sepsis diagnosis and microbiology diagnostic stewardship. Low likelihood ratios for band 1 SeptiScores may prompt clinicians to consider an alternate diagnosis to sepsis. Such results, obtained early in the diagnostic workup process, may lead to fewer missed diagnoses and more efficient use of hospital resources.

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Noninvasive Hypokalemia Detection from Single-Lead AI-ECG: Development, Multicenter Validation, and Prospective Pilot Study in the Emergency Department

Tang, G.; Li, X.; Xiao, Y.; Wang, K.; Wu, M.; Wei, Z.; Yu, M.; Chen, X.; Hong, W.; Cheng, F.; Li, X.; Zhang, J.; Wu, X.; Hong, S.

2026-06-01 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.23.26353774 medRxiv
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Hypokalemia is a common and potentially life-threatening electrolyte abnormality in emergency care, yet rapid noninvasive screening remains difficult in time-critical triage settings. We developed PocketED-K, a single-lead AI-ECG prescreening model initialized from ECGFounder, and evaluated it in retrospective multicenter cohorts and a prospective handheld pilot. Retrospective development and validation included 37,115 patients from MC-MED and MIMIC-ED, and the pilot enrolled 18 patients at Peking University First Hospital. Hypokalemia was defined as venous serum potassium < 3.5 mmol/L. PocketED-K achieved AUROCs of 0.8189 (95% CI 0.8172--0.8207) in internal testing, 0.8104 (95% CI 0.8092--0.8115) in temporal validation, and 0.7889 (95% CI 0.7692--0.8074) in independent external validation; external negative predictive value was 0.9911 (95% CI 0.9895--0.9925). Higher predicted risk was associated with ST-segment depression, T-wave flattening or inversion, and relative U-wave prominence. The prospective handheld pilot provided an initial signal of workflow feasibility in real-world acquisition. These findings support single-lead AI-ECG as a low-burden prescreening tool to prioritize potassium testing in emergency care.

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A Machine Learning Pipeline for Scalable Annotation of Patient-Ventilator Dyssynchrony from Bedside Ventilator Data

Tlimat, A.; Mayampurath, A.; Safadi, S.; Kalehoff, J.; Seam, N.; Johnson, R. B.; Morris, P.; Bodduluri, S.; Bhatt, S. P.; Afshar, M.

2026-06-12 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.06.11.26355207 medRxiv
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Objective: Patient-ventilator dyssynchrony (PVD) is a common and clinically consequential problem in critically ill patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation. Yet automated identification of PVD subtypes at scale remains an unmet clinical need, owing to the lack of large annotated bedside waveform datasets. Methods: We developed and validated a semi-supervised algorithm for automated annotation of PVD. In two medical ICUs at a tertiary academic center, bedside devices continuously collected airway flow and pressure waveforms from the ventilators. We developed a software interface with an information retrieval system that grouped similar breaths for expert human review, yielding 1,542,296 labeled breaths across eight categories: 2 labels for breath delivery mode, 5 labels for PVD subtypes, and 1 label denoting a normal breath. Two pulmonary physicians with expertise in ventilator training and education provided the expert reference labels. We trained an initial classification model on a model-derivation set of 771,148 breaths (divided into training and validation) and evaluated it on a hold-out test set of 771,149 breaths A semi-supervised approach was utilized to extend labeling to an additional 12,965,000 unlabeled breaths. Results: The supervised model performed well across all labels, with Macro-F1 scores between 0.96 and 1.00. Semi-supervised learning across 12 rounds expanded the training set from 771,148 to 8,563,995 breaths without significant performance degradation. Conclusion: We developed a practical and scalable system for automated PVD annotation that performed well across all subtypes. This work provides a reproducible foundation for automated PVD labeling to support the development of machine-learning-based clinical decision support systems for identifying patient-level asynchrony.

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Calibrated and Interpretable Machine Learning for ICU Mortality Prediction Using First 24-Hour Clinical Data

Alsammani, A.; Johnson, M.; Elrefaei, J.

2026-06-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.05.30.26354524 medRxiv
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Objective: To develop, calibrate, and interpret machine learning models for predicting in-hospital mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients using clinical data collected during the first 24 hours of admission. Methods: We analyzed 53,866 adult ICU admissions from the MIMIC-IV (v2.2) database, including 5,787 in-hospital deaths (10.7%). An enhanced feature-engineering pipeline generated 88 laboratory-based features that captured distributional characteristics, temporal trends, and measurement frequency. Five machine learning classifiers were evaluated: L2-regularized logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and a calibrated soft-voting ensemble. Models were developed using a stratified 64:8:8:20 split for training, validation and hyperparameter tuning, calibration, and testing. Performance was assessed on a held-out test set (n = 10,774) using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), Brier score, calibration analysis, decision curve analysis (DCA), and SHAP-based model interpretation. Results: The calibrated ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with an AUROC of 0.856 (95% CI: 0.846-0.867), an AUPRC of 0.449 (95% CI: 0.418-0.480), and a Brier score of 0.078. XGBoost (AUROC 0.856; AUPRC 0.435) and LightGBM (AUROC 0.854; AUPRC 0.436) demonstrated performance comparable to the ensemble and significantly outperformed logistic regression (AUROC 0.823; AUPRC 0.376), yielding absolute AUROC improvements of approximately 0.031-0.033 (p < 0.001). Calibration substantially improved probabilistic predictions, reducing Brier scores by 42% for XGBoost (0.134 to 0.078) and 50% for LightGBM (0.151 to 0.076). Decision curve analysis demonstrated consistent net clinical benefit across the 5%-20% risk-threshold range. Key predictors included age, blood urea nitrogen, ICU subtype, measurement frequency, and lactate-related features. Model performance remained robust across ICU subtypes, with AUROC values exceeding 0.79. Conclusion: A calibrated and interpretable machine learning framework based on early ICU clinical data provides accurate and clinically actionable mortality risk estimates. By integrating trajectory-aware feature engineering, probabilistic calibration, and decision-analytic evaluation, this approach advances ICU mortality prediction toward more reliable and trustworthy clinical decision support systems.

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Evaluating Guideline-Endorsed Probability Stratification and Aldosterone Suppression Testing for Lateralizing Primary Aldosteronism

Payanundana, M.; Parksook, W. W.; Piyanirun, K.; Charunvarakornchai, D.; Siriwan, C.; Parisien-La Salle, S.; Tsai, C.-H.; Newman, A. J.; Brown, J. M.; Sathavarodom, N.; Sunthornyothin, S.; Boonyavarakul, A.; Vaidya, A.

2026-05-20 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353176 medRxiv
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Background: Recent primary aldosteronism (PA) guidelines proposed probability-based stratifications, and use of aldosterone suppression testing, to predict lateralizing PA subtype. This guideline framework was based on very low-quality evidence. Methods: The discriminatory capacity of guideline-endorsed probability frameworks for PA subtyping were evaluated in this retrospective study of 319 PA patients, from two large tertiary centers in Bangkok, Thailand, who underwent subtyping assessments regardless of probability status. PA subtypes were determined by adrenal venous sampling (AVS) and/or post-adrenalectomy outcomes using PASO criteria. The main objectives were to evaluate the accuracy of predicting PA subtype using: 1) guideline-endorsed classification to high, intermediate, and low probabilities of lateralization; and 2) the seated saline suppression test (SST). Results: The majority of PA patients were characterized as having intermediate probability for lateralizing PA (75%); however, lateralizing PA was ultimately confirmed in 61-78% of all patients, regardless of guideline-based probability classification. The vast majority of SST results were positive using guideline-derived criteria, regardless of probability stratification or ultimate subtype: 89.3% of patients with lateralizing PA and 80.6% of those with bilateral PA had a positive SST. Among patients with intermediate probability of lateralizing PA, where guidelines specifically endorse the value of SST, the SST had a sensitivity of 89.4% and specificity of 22.0% for detecting lateralizing PA, with 78.0% false-positive and 10.6% false-negative rates. Consistently, post-SST aldosterone concentrations exhibited near-complete overlap between those with and without lateralizing PA. Conclusion: Guideline-endorsed probability frameworks, and the use of SST, lacked discriminatory capacity to predict PA subtype.

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Elevated serum apolipoprotein B and lipoprotein remodelling distinguish adults with HLH from HLH mimics and controls

Oppong, A. E.; Louden, K.; HOLLOWAY, A.; ROSSI, L.; McDonnell, T. C. R.; Robinson, G. A.; ARULKUMARAN, N.; Manson, J. J.; Jury, E. C.

2026-05-17 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.05.13.26352642 medRxiv
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Haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare, life-threatening hyperinflammatory syndrome characterised by uncontrolled immune activation. Reduced high- and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and hypertriglyceridaemia are reported in HLH, suggesting lipid metabolism disturbances although in-depth serum metabolomic analysis is lacking in HLH. Here a lipid-focused NMR spectroscopy platform was used to define the serum metabolomic landscape of adults hospitalised with HLH compared to adults with sepsis (HLH-mimic) and rheumatic disease (potential HLH drivers/triggers), following surgical resection of solid organ cancer (non-infectious acute inflammation controls) and healthy controls (HCs). Serum metabolites distinguished HLH from HCs with high accuracy (>91.36%) using multiple machine learning models. The top classifying features included elevated apolipoprotein-B (ApoB)-containing low, intermediate, and very low-density lipoprotein particles; and lipoprotein remodelling towards triglyceride enrichment and cholesterol depletion. Differentially abundant metabolites in HLH compared to all control groups were enriched in pathways related to lipid metabolism including: 'Lipid particles composition', 'Plasma lipoprotein clearance', 'Plasma lipoprotein remodelling', 'Glucose homeostasis' and 'Amino acid metabolism'. Metabolomic results were validated using matched whole blood RNA-sequencing which identified differentially expressed genes enriched in metabolic modules associated with lipid, amino acid, and glucose metabolism, supporting a coordinated metabolic dysregulation in HLH from a transcriptomic to metabolomic level. Finally, twenty-seven metabolites including ApoB-containing, triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and saturated fatty acids distinguished HLH from all disease controls (AUC>0.70) either alone or combined as a metabolomic signature. Elevated ApoB and ApoB:ApoA1 ratio in HLH vs sepsis and HCs were validated by ELISA, supporting their utility as biomarkers to distinguish HLH from other hyperinflammatory syndromes.

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Delayed Arousal Response to Sleep Apnea Encodes Mortality

Fan, J.; Westover, M. B.; Leng, Y.; Zhang, G.-Q.; Stone, K. L.; Redline, S.; Thomas, R. J.; Cui, L.; Sun, H.

2026-05-21 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353387 medRxiv
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Rationale: Conventional measures of obstructive sleep apnea severity, particularly the apnea-hypopnea index, do not adequately capture event-level neurophysiologic responses to respiratory events. Whether post-apnea/hypopnea arousal dynamics provide prognostic information beyond established metrics remains unknown. Objectives: To determine whether post-apnea/hypopnea arousal dynamics are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of in-home polysomnography data from 8,053 adults across four community-based cohorts. Peak time (PT; latency to maximal arousal probability), peak height (PH; maximal arousal probability), and area under the curve (AUC; cumulative arousal probability) were derived from peri-stimulus time histograms aligned to event termination. Associations with mortality were examined using multivariable Cox models and random-effects meta-analysis. Measurements and Main Results: PT, but not PH or AUC, was associated with mortality. In pooled analyses, each 1-second delay in PT was associated with higher all-cause mortality in males (hazard ratio [HR], 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.06) and females (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.06). For cardiovascular mortality, each 1-second delay in PT was associated with higher risk in males (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08) but not females (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.99-1.10). Associations were driven primarily by non-rapid eye movement sleep and remained materially unchanged after additional adjustment for apnea-hypopnea index, arousal index, and hypoxic burden. Conclusions: Delayed arousal timing after apnea/hypopnea termination was associated with increased mortality risk independent of conventional measures of obstructive sleep apnea severity. Event-level arousal timing may provide prognostic information beyond count-based and hypoxemia-based metrics.

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Exploring the Relationship Between Acute Respiratory Illnesses, blood inflammatory biomarkers, and Acute Cardiac Events through a cross-sectional study

Aleem, M. A.; Macintyre, C. R.; Rahman, B. A.; Rahman, M. Z.; Rahman, M. A.; Islam, A. K. M. M.; Ghosh, P. K.; Akhtar, Z.; Chowdhury, F.; Qadri, F. A.; Chughtai, A. A.

2026-05-20 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.05.15.26353350 medRxiv
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Introduction Recent respiratory illness, especially influenza, may trigger acute cardiac events via elevated inflammatory mediators. During the 2018 influenza season in Bangladesh, this study examined whether recent acute clinical respiratory illness (CRI) or laboratory-confirmed influenza was associated with elevated hs-CRP and IL-6, linked to acute cardiac events. Methods A total of 139 participants aged [&ge;]40 were recruited from a Dhaka cardiac hospital: 70 with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 30 with other acute cardiac events, and 39 healthy individuals. CRI was defined as fever with cough and/or respiratory symptoms within seven days. Respiratory swabs were tested for influenza, and blood was analyzed for hs-CRP and IL-6. Results Median hs-CRP and IL-6 were higher in participants with CRI or influenza but not significantly. Cardiac patients had elevated hs-CRP (9.98 mg/L in other cardiac; 4.86 mg/L in AMI vs. 1.73 mg/L in healthy) and IL-6 (0.1 pg/mL in other cardiac; 0.145 pg/mL in AMI vs. 0.08 pg/mL in healthy) (p<0.001). CRI was not significantly associated with elevated hs-CRP or IL-6, though influenza in healthy participants was linked to higher IL-6. Cardiac patients had a higher risk of hs-CRP [&ge;]3 mg/L and elevated IL-6. Conclusion Cardiac patients showed significantly increased inflammatory markers, but CRI was not clearly linked to inflammation. Further research should assess biomarker utility for early cardiac risk.